Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
